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Oil fell nearly 4% on Monday as Iranian and Qatari officials held talks on a deal to end the US-Israeli war on Iran. Brent dropped $4.20 to $109.23 and WTI traded near $100 by 0900 GMT.
Brent had ended October at a six-month high on fears of renewed escalation after the US midterms.
Easing expectations of a Hormuz supply resolution are removing the geopolitical risk premium from crude, which lowers diesel and energy input costs for feed producers. Lower crude also eases pressure on freight and fertilizer costs, though price direction hinges on whether talks succeed.
economymiddleeast.comElias Al HelouNov 2, 2026
oedigital.comNov 2, 2026After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 51 past bearish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -8.2% to +3.9%), and -2.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
