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US diesel prices have risen 82.5% nationally since the start of 2026, following the US war on Iran and the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with Russia's war in Ukraine also adding disruption. The US Energy Information Administration says prices may not normalise until 2028 even if the conflicts end, because damaged refining capacity takes time to rebuild.
Prolonged diesel and freight cost inflation raises the cost of moving feed ingredients and grain across the US. Persistent energy costs also support input costs for livestock producers.
arkansasbusiness.comMarty CookNov 2, 2026After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
