Return to oil production cuts in 2019 cannot be ruled out

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Nov 7, 2018OPEC Considers 2019 Oil Production Cuts in Yet Another U-Turn - Bloomberg-10.5%
• Nov 30, 2020OPEC Meets To Decide Whether Cuts In Oil Production Are Still Needed : NPR+1.5%
• Jun 8, 2020Oil prices top $40 as OPEC+ extends production cuts | Fox Business-8.3%
• Feb 10, 2023OPEC+ Won’t Increase Oil Production Despite Russia Output Cut, Delegates Say - Bloomberg+0.5%
• Jan 26, 2026OPEC+ set to keep oil production pause for March as prices jump, sources say | Reuters+6.4%

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Nov 7, 2018OPEC Considers 2019 Oil Production Cuts in Yet Another U-Turn - Bloomberg-8.3%
• Nov 30, 2020OPEC Meets To Decide Whether Cuts In Oil Production Are Still Needed : NPR+3.5%
• Jun 8, 2020Oil prices top $40 as OPEC+ extends production cuts | Fox Business-7.2%
• Feb 10, 2023OPEC+ Won’t Increase Oil Production Despite Russia Output Cut, Delegates Say - Bloomberg+0.6%
• Jan 26, 2026OPEC+ set to keep oil production pause for March as prices jump, sources say | Reuters+6.6%