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A Grain Central market wire reports NOAA maintains an El Niño Advisory with a strong to very strong event likely through early 2027, with BoM expecting warming to peak around November or December. Wheat posted a ninth consecutive weekly loss, with SRW down 3.44% and MATIF down 2.56% on the week, and managed money is now short.
A strong El Niño raises risk to Brazilian soybean rainfall and next year's Southeast Asian palm oil output, supporting soy and palm oil prices. The continued wheat losses and fund short positioning point to near-term pressure on wheat values.
graincentral.comGuest AuthorNov 2, 2026graincentral.comGuest AuthorNov 3, 2026After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 181 past bullish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
