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The WMO says El Niño is firmly established and will strengthen into a very strong event, with near-100% likelihood of persisting through February 2027. It warns of major rainfall and temperature shifts, with associated flood, drought and extreme heat risks.
Preparedness and early-warning efforts are being stepped up.
A very strong El Niño typically cuts yields in Southeast Asia, Australia and parts of South America while boosting risk elsewhere, tightening supplies of grains and oilseeds and supporting prices.
reliefweb.intSep 2, 2026After 1,465 past bullish weather events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, WHEAT moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 181 past bullish weather events, PALMOIL moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
