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The WMO's seasonal update for September-November 2025 says sea-surface temperatures are forecast to decline in the Niño 3.4 region, with a potential weak La Niña emerging. The Indian Ocean Dipole is projected to shift toward a negative phase.
A weak La Niña during the austral spring can raise drought risk for Argentina and southern Brazil, supporting soybean and corn prices, while the US outlook is more benign.
public.wmo.intAug 25, 2025After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
