Shipbroker Intermodal reports the dry bulk market under pressure in early 2023, with the BDI at levels last seen in summer 2020. It expects higher 2022/23 wheat output from the EU and Russia and a rebound in South American corn and soybean crops as La Nina fades.
Expected larger South American crops and higher EU and Russian wheat supplies add to global grain availability, which tends to pressure feed grain and wheat prices lower while weighing on bulk freight demand.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.