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Lipsa's September 2024 report says the US weather has been favourable for soybeans while adverse conditions persist for Canadian canola and Black Sea sunflower. Heat and drought in Russia, Ukraine and Eastern Europe have caused irreversible sunflower damage, with at least 3.6 MnT lost in the last two months.
It also notes Indonesia's planned 40% palm biodiesel blend, which would add 3-4 MnT of domestic demand.
Sunflower seed losses in the Black Sea tighten global vegetable oil supply and support sunflower meal and palm oil prices. The Indonesian biodiesel mandate would absorb more palm oil, supporting prices.
lipsa.esSep 3, 2024Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 181 past bullish weather events, PALMOIL moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 184 past bullish weather events, SBO moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Sunflower crop losses from Black Sea drought and Canadian canola problems tighten competing vegetable oil supply, while Indonesia's planned B40 biodiesel adds palm demand, bullish for palm.
