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Following Lula da Silva's election in Brazil, the real fell roughly 8-12% against the US dollar. The currency slide triggered a sell-off in sugar, coffee and soybean futures, and the Bovespa index dropped nearly 14%, activating circuit breakers.
A weaker real lowers the dollar cost of Brazilian exports, which pressures global soybean and sugar prices as Brazilian producers gain competitiveness. Feed buyers may see softer soybean meal and soy complex prices if the currency weakness holds.
whalesbook.comRiya KapoorNov 1, 2026After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 117 past bearish macro events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
