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DTN analysis outlines downside price risks for corn and soybeans heading into 2017, including higher interest rates, a stronger dollar, trade tensions under the incoming Trump administration, possible biofuel policy changes, and another large global feed grain and oilseed crop. Cash bids run well under nearby futures and the December 2017 corn contract trades near $3.86 a bushel.
Market risk management commentary highlights bearish macro and policy risks that could cap feed grain prices, though it describes no new single cause of a move.
dtnpf.comNov 22, 2016After 301 past bearish macro events, CORN moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 273 past bearish macro events, SOY moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, DXY moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
