The Central Bank of Turkey has intervened repeatedly in FX markets since early December to counter unhealthy exchange rate moves. In Brazil, the central bank sold dollars to offset seasonal dividend outflows from the real.
Markets awaited the Fed decision, with DXY expected to trade toward the upper end of its 95.50-97.00 range.
A firmer dollar ahead of a hawkish Fed raises the cost of imported feed inputs for emerging markets and can weigh on dollar-priced grain and oilseed values, though the effect is modest in this report.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, DXY moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 92 past neutral macro events, USDBRL moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.