
Brazil's central bank sold $1 billion in FX swaps on February 13, its first swap intervention in about 18 months, to push back on the real's slide toward record lows. The real reversed from above 4.38 to around 4.31 before settling near 4.34, and the bank is expected to repeat the intervention the following day.
The intervention is likely to give only temporary support to the real, so Brazilian dollar-denominated export prices for soy and corn should stay competitive, keeping pressure on global feed prices.
After 92 past neutral macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 73 past neutral macro events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.1%), and -1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.