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Commentary argues that corn prices are shifting lower because COVID-19 has collapsed energy demand, with an estimated 140 of 206 US ethanol plants shut or idled. Analysts expect planted area to rise, and suggest December corn could trade in a $2.75 to $3.50 range instead of the earlier $3.50 to $4.25.
Lower ethanol demand from weak energy markets cuts corn use while planting expands supply. Only a weather-driven production shortfall would likely reverse the downward price trend.
agriculture.comMay 1, 2020After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
