
Business in Vancouver reports that IMO caps on shipping pollution will likely raise diesel prices and lower the price of crude oil. Refiners with complex heavy-oil capacity are expected to benefit, while Alberta producers may see wider discounts.
IHS Markit projects diesel demand up 1.2 million barrels per day in 2020 over 2018.
Stronger diesel demand and weaker crude for some producers reshape refinery margins, with higher diesel costs for trucking and farm fuel buyers.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 105 past bullish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.4% to +1.8%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.