
E-commerce and restocking have pushed freight volumes above pre-COVID levels, with US large trucks logging 5% more miles than a year earlier. Trucking firms are rejecting a higher share of freight requests amid driver shortages.
Stronger trucking and rail demand supports diesel consumption, which could slow the recovery in the diesel surplus and support fuel prices.
After 105 past bullish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.4% to +1.8%), and +1.2% over 20.
After 102 past neutral macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -3.3% to +2.5%), and +1.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.