
USDA raised its 2016/17 global wheat production estimate to 751 million tons, with Australian output forecast at a record 33.0 million tons. Lower average protein in wheat exports has pushed up premiums for high-protein wheat, widening the spread between Minneapolis HRS futures and Chicago and Kansas City contracts.
Tight high-protein supply supports premiums for HRS and high-protein milling wheat even as overall supplies are record large, so buyers needing protein will pay up while basic wheat stays cheap.
After 20 past neutral trade events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.7% over 5 sessions (30% higher; middle half -4.1% to +1.4%), and -4.0% over 20.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.