
US SRW wheat futures rallied more than 80 cents a bushel from late-November lows on major Chinese purchases in early December, but the rally has stalled as China has not made additional purchases. HRW has followed a similar pattern, and its premium over SRW has narrowed sharply.
Without fresh Chinese demand the recent wheat rebound lacks support, so prices may consolidate or slip. Narrower HRW premiums signal weaker demand for higher-protein wheat.
After 20 past neutral trade events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.7% over 5 sessions (30% higher; middle half -4.1% to +1.4%), and -4.0% over 20.
After 206 past neutral trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.