
India imported 2.7 million tonnes of wheat from France, Australia and Ukraine so far in 2016-17, with 1.2 million more expected by month-end. Importers have avoided contracts after March, expecting customs duty to be reimposed at the April harvest.
Imports are cheaper than domestic wheat.
Heavy Indian import buying supports Black Sea and Australian wheat export prices, but expected duty reimposition after March could cut future demand.
After 206 past neutral trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 20 past neutral trade events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.7% over 5 sessions (30% higher; middle half -4.1% to +1.4%), and -4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.