
Kansas City HRW wheat fell more than 5% in October, narrowing its discount to Chicago and moving to an 80-cent discount to Minneapolis, with HRW feeding reported in Kansas and Colorado. Commentary also notes China is set to become the largest wheat importer this year after record imports of 10 MMT through September.
Strong Chinese import demand and HRW feeding tighten the picture for wheat, while the narrowed basis reflects a shift in relative value among US classes that affects feed grain substitution.
After 20 past neutral trade events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.7% over 5 sessions (30% higher; middle half -4.1% to +1.4%), and -4.0% over 20.
After 206 past neutral trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 480 past neutral trade events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.