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US hard red winter and hard red spring wheat export sales are well behind last year's pace, with HRW sales down 36 percent. USDA projects 2018/19 hard wheat exports to be similar or higher than last year, which the analyst argues requires a pickup in export demand.
Russian sellers are shipping aggressively ahead of possible Russian export restrictions.
If USDA export projections are to be met, sales must accelerate, which would support US wheat prices; the current lag weighs on the market.
farmprogress.comKim AndersonOct 18, 2018After 206 past neutral trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 20 past neutral trade events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.7% over 5 sessions (30% higher; middle half -4.1% to +1.4%), and -4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
