
Black Sea exporters are projected to control 49% of the hard wheat export market in 2018/19, up sharply from 12% in 2000/01. Russia's share of world hard wheat exports has grown to 29%.
Black Sea dominance keeps global wheat pricing anchored to Russian and Ukrainian supply, limiting price spikes from other origins.
After 20 past neutral trade events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.7% over 5 sessions (30% higher; middle half -4.1% to +1.4%), and -4.0% over 20.
After 206 past neutral trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.