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A Cofco UK trading director says Russia's record export pace has finally slowed, with 24 million tonnes shipped in the first half of the season and domestic Russian prices rising. He argues EU and US wheat are too late to capture the gap, with Russia still having about 12 million tonnes of its 36 million tonne export surplus to ship.
Slowing Russian exports leave room for EU and US wheat, but ample Russian supplies and strong competition cap any sustained price rally.
fwi.co.ukSuzie HorneFeb 13, 2019After 206 past neutral trade events, WHEAT moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 20 past neutral trade events, KWHEAT moved a median -0.7% over 5 sessions (30% higher; middle half -4.1% to +1.4%), and -4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
