
Chicago wheat futures recovered from their lowest since September 2021 on Wednesday, with the most-active contract up 0.35% at $7.08 a bushel. Gains were limited by hopes for a renewed Black Sea grain deal and cheap Russian exports, while Turkey's TMO bought about 790,000 tonnes in a tender.
Corn and soybeans also rose.
Cheap Russian competition and Black Sea deal hopes pressure wheat, which substitutes for corn in feed rations. Dry weather risk in Australia from El Niño offers some support later in 2023.
After 206 past neutral trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 480 past neutral trade events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 250 past neutral trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.