
Ukraine's grain exports in the 2020/21 season reached 5.10 million tonnes as of August 19, down from 6.36 million a year earlier, mainly due to lower corn exports. The economy ministry expects Ukraine's 2020 grain output to fall to 72.1 million tonnes from a record 75.1 million in 2019 due to poor weather.
Lower Ukrainian corn exports and a forecast smaller crop tighten Black Sea feed-grain supply, which supports corn and barley prices. The shortfall versus last season is a modest bullish factor for feed buyers.
After 729 past bullish trade events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 206 past neutral trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.