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DTN analyst Todd Hultman notes that China holds 57.6 million bushels of US soft red winter wheat purchases not yet shipped, and that March Chicago wheat is about a nickel higher than on October 2. He says USDA expects the lowest US wheat export total in over 50 years for 2023-24, with Russia dominating world exports at low prices.
Low US export volume and Russian price competition limit wheat demand support, though potential European and Canadian dryness is a watch item for later in the season.
dtnpf.comTodd HultmanFeb 2, 2024After 211 past trade events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -2.5% to +2.7%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 206 past neutral trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
