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Cargill warned Russia's increased control of wheat exports will make price discovery more opaque. Barchart noted bearish factors including rain in the Southern Plains and a Russian export deal, while Statistics Canada projected a 6.2% rise in Canadian wheat area to the largest since 2001.
Canadian area growth and Russian dominance add bearish supply pressure, while managed funds near a record net short could fuel a short-covering rally. Price discovery concerns add to trade friction.
uswheat.orgApr 27, 2023After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 20 past neutral trade events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.7% over 5 sessions (30% higher; middle half -4.1% to +1.4%), and -4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
