
US wheat futures fell after steel and aluminum tariffs took effect for key customers, with September KC HRW down 51 cents and Minneapolis HRS down 58 cents since. US export sales for 2018/19 were 32 percent behind last year as buyers delayed purchases amid trade uncertainty.
Reduced export demand and buyer caution weigh on US wheat prices, though global supplies are tight, creating a potential buying opportunity for feed and milling buyers.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 82 past bearish trade events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.8% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.