
US Wheat Associates reports that US flour millers imported European wheat for domestic flour production in 2023, driven by a large price discount. Polish wheat FOB was over $107 per tonne below US HRW Gulf FOB in May, and German wheat showed a similar discount.
A deep European price discount diverts some demand away from US wheat, adding pressure on US HRW export and domestic values. Cheap European wheat also gives feed buyers a low-cost wheat option.
After 82 past bearish trade events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.8% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.