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US and European wheat futures rose on July 10 to their highest since late May after escalating Russia-Ukraine hostilities. Russia temporarily stopped Don-Azov shipping after a Ukrainian attack on Russian vessels, and USDA cut its 2026/27 world wheat ending stocks forecast to 272.84 million tonnes.
USDA also projected the smallest US wheat crop in 56 years.
A lower USDA world stocks forecast and a shrinking US crop tighten supply, while Russian shipping interruptions add export risk. Both factors support wheat prices and modestly lift corn and soybeans.
checkout.ieReutersJul 14, 2026After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 180 past bullish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Wheat rose to its highest since late May on Russia-Ukraine shipping risk plus a USDA cut to world stocks and the smallest US crop in 56 years, covering both supply and trade-flow drivers.
It reports the rally to multi-week highs on the Azov shipping halt and USDA stock cuts, which set up the momentum, but it covers July 10 rather than the move day.
