
CBOT wheat closed higher on April 1 after USDA's prospective plantings showed all US wheat area falling to 45.35 million acres, below trade expectations of 46.475 million. Ukraine said it would not revise its 2024/25 export volume.
Smaller-than-expected US wheat plantings tighten the outlook for US supplies and support prices, although Ukraine's unchanged export volume limits the rally.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 180 past bullish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.