
Wheat futures closed higher on Monday after USDA's Prospective Plantings report showed 45.35 million acres of wheat intended for planting, well below the trade guess of 46.53 million. March 1 wheat stocks came in at 1.236 billion bushels, slightly above the trade average.
Acreage well below expectations signals tighter U.S. wheat supply for 2025, which supports prices, though the stocks figure was roughly neutral.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 180 past bullish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.