US Fed Lifts Rates, Reaffirms ‘Gradual’ Outlook

After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.

• Mar 3, 2026US dollar firms on renewed inflation risks; market pares back rate-cut outlook  | Reuters+33.1%
• Aug 23, 2024Oil climbs over 2% after Fed's Powell indicates US rate cuts | Reuters+4.2%
• Sep 16, 2020Global shares slip, dollar gains as Fed sticks to agenda of near-zero rates | Reuters+3.3%
• Jun 19, 2019Commodities outlook: It's all action as Fed decides+7.1%
• Aug 22, 2024Oil prices settle $1 up on hopes of a US Fed rate cut next month | Reuters+3.7%

After 323 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Aug 23, 2024Oil climbs over 2% after Fed's Powell indicates US rate cuts | Reuters+3.5%
• Sep 16, 2020Global shares slip, dollar gains as Fed sticks to agenda of near-zero rates | Reuters+3.1%
• Jun 19, 2019Commodities outlook: It's all action as Fed decides+4.6%
• Oct 29, 2026Brent moves lower as US Fed maintains interest rates-5.4%
• Jun 19, 2026Dollar index hits 13-month high on hawkish Fed, shaky Middle East outlook-6.4%

After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Dec 11, 2025US dollar sags as Fed outlook undermines; Swiss franc gets SNB lift | Reuters-0.4%
• Jul 29, 2020Sterling rises as Fed keeps lid on US rates+0.4%
• Sep 15, 2020Federal Reserve to meet after sharp changes to its outlook | AP News+0.6%
• Jul 26, 2023Global shares flat, US yields fall after Fed delivers rate hike+0.6%
• May 25, 2021Global Markets Insights: Mixed retail outlook, USD and CAD get a lift | Article-0.4%