US dollar firms on renewed inflation risks; market pares back rate-cut outlook

After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Nov 3, 2025Dollar edges up as rate cut outlook remains clouded | Reuters+0.0%
• Apr 7, 2023Dollar firms as US jobs report backs Fed hike in May | Reuters-0.8%
• Apr 28, 2023US dollar firms as inflation data backs Fed hike; yen plunges-0.3%
• Oct 16, 2024US dollar rallies on Fed outlook, potential Trump win; inflation weighs on pound+0.7%
• Feb 24, 2026US Dollar Firms as Fed Minutes Temper Rate-Cut Expectations | Investing.com+0.6%

After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.

• Jan 27, 2025Renewed inflation worries help drive oil price rally | Reuters-2.8%
• Apr 12, 2023Oil rises 2% on lower-than-expected US inflation data | Reuters-0.8%
• Oct 29, 2025Newsquawk US Market Wrap: Dollar and yields rally as Powell pushes back against December rate cut | Newsquawk+0.7%
• May 11, 2021Commodity currencies hold advantage as dollar waits for inflation and Fed | Reuters+2.0%
• May 28, 2021Canadian dollar falls as investors weigh US inflation surge - Markets - Business Recorder+4.1%