Dollar edges up as rate cut outlook remains clouded

After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Jan 17, 2022Dollar edges up as traders assess Fed rate hike bets | Reuters+0.7%
• Dec 16, 2024Dollar edges higher against major peers as investors eye Fed rate cut | Reuters+0.5%
• Mar 30, 2026Dollar rebounds as shale 'isolates' US but Fed outlook clouds gains-0.2%
• Sep 28, 2018Dollar gains on euro woes, Fed rate outlook+0.6%
• Mar 3, 2026US dollar firms on renewed inflation risks; market pares back rate-cut outlook  | Reuters+0.7%

After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Sep 28, 2018Dollar gains on euro woes, Fed rate outlook-1.4%
• Jul 31, 2019Dollar up, stocks tumble after Fed rate outlook as pound stalls | Malay Mail+0.4%
• Dec 15, 2016Dollar, bond yields advance on Fed rate outlook-2.2%
• Sep 17, 2020Dollar edges higher as Fed outlook lifts U.S. yields | Financial Post-1.3%
• Sep 27, 2018Dollar rises on Fed rate outlook; euro falls on Italian budget woes-2.0%