Dollar edges up as traders assess Fed rate hike bets

After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Jun 13, 2018Dollar mostly firmer as Fed sees more U.S. rate hikes | Reuters+1.3%
• Nov 3, 2025Dollar edges up as rate cut outlook remains clouded | Reuters+0.0%
• May 1, 2023US dollar edges higher as GDP, jobless claims affirm rate hike bets-0.6%
• Jun 14, 2022Dollar index jumps to two-decade high as traders await Fed rate move | Reuters-0.4%
• Oct 28, 2022Gold down 1% as dollar, yields rise on Fed rate-hike bets+1.2%

After 1,108 past macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -0.7% to +0.6%), and -0.3% over 20.

• Jan 23, 2023Dollar edges lower vs euro on ECB rate hike bets | Reuters+0.2%
• Nov 3, 2025Dollar edges up as rate cut outlook remains clouded | Reuters+0.3%
• Dec 16, 2024Dollar edges higher against major peers as investors eye Fed rate cut | Reuters-0.6%
• May 23, 2022Euro climbs as ECB eyes rate hikes, dollar slides | Reuters+1.4%
• Jun 18, 2026US dollar rally builds as hawkish Fed meeting stokes rate-hike bets | The Straits Times-1.8%