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A John Deere precision agriculture manager argues that extended-range growing season forecasts are often unscientific, while long-range models show skill for regions but not individual farms. The piece promotes an upcoming webinar on the 2017 season.
The article is general commentary on forecasting methods and does not report a new weather event or supply change, so it has no meaningful effect on feed commodity prices.
globalagtechinitiative.comMatt HopkinsMar 7, 2017After 2,467 past weather events, CORN moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 1,964 past weather events, SOY moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,773 past weather events, WHEAT moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 361 past weather events, PALMOIL moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
