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CBOT wheat for December delivery fell 6.6% on September 29 after USDA quarterly stocks and Small Grains reports showed higher wheat and soybean stocks and higher wheat production than analysts expected. Corn stocks came in lower than expected.
Wheat had lost 17% during the third quarter, with Russian export supplies cited as a major pressure.
Bigger-than-expected U.S. wheat supplies and soybean stocks loosen balance sheets and weigh on futures. Feed grain buyers should expect softer wheat and soybean complex prices, with corn cushioned by its lower stocks.
farmpolicynews.illinois.eduKeith GoodOct 1, 2023After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The USDA Small Grains and quarterly stocks reports on Sept 29 triggered a 6.6% selloff on higher-than-expected wheat production and stocks plus Russian export pressure, but the timing is a trading day before the window, so this is mainly carry-over.
