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Barchart columnist Andrew Hecht reported that grains, oilseeds, cotton, cattle and hogs fell after the July 2023 WASDE report. Teucrium founder Sal Gilberte said USDA cut corn yield due to early dryness and left soybean yields unchanged, with soybean ending stocks at risk of record lows after a sharp drop in planted acres.
A downward corn yield revision and reduced soybean usage tighten the balance sheets, but the report's bearish reaction shows markets were pricing in more supply than the USDA projected. Weather in coming weeks will determine whether prices hold.
barchart.comAndrew HechtJul 16, 2023After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 144 past bearish report events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.1% to +0.9%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 159 past bearish report events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Barchart reports grains fell after the July WASDE, which points to a bearish supply-side repricing shortly before the move window ended.
