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The July WASDE showed few surprises for soybeans but erased recent price gains in corn and wheat. New-crop corn stocks tightened on a smaller crop, while old-crop stocks rose on lower ethanol demand.
USDA raised its season-average corn price estimate by 15 cents to $3.35 per bushel.
Weaker ethanol demand and high global stocks cap the upside for corn and wheat, which lowers feed grain costs. Traders had already priced in most of the acreage-driven cut.
farmprogress.comBen PotterJul 10, 2020
proag.comJul 10, 2020After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The July WASDE (released July 10, after the July 9 close) is dated after the move, so it cannot have caused it, but it signals the bearish positioning and rally unwinding that were likely under way beforehand.
