
USDA's quarterly Hogs and Pigs report showed the US hog herd at 71.5 million head as of Dec. 1, about 104% of last year and above analyst expectations of 71.1 million.
CME lean hog futures fell more than 2% on Dec. 23 after the release, while cold storage pork stocks came in below estimates.
A larger-than-expected hog supply with reduced holiday slaughter weighs on lean hog prices and adds to pork supply, reducing demand for feed ingredients at the margin.
After 159 past bearish report events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.