A University of Illinois economist reported that fertilizer prices have fallen since 2013, with central Illinois corn fertilizer costs dropping from $200 per acre in 2012 to $154 in 2016. A further $20 per acre decline is expected for 2017, and the 2017 anhydrous ammonia average of $509 per ton is the lowest since 2009.
Lower fertilizer costs reduce production expenses for corn and soybean growers, which can support acreage and output over time. The price effect on feed grains is indirect, but cheaper inputs weigh on fertilizer prices.
After 42 past bearish report events, Urea moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.9% to +3.3%), and +2.9% over 20.
After 35 past bearish report events, DAP moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.