
A Rabobank report expects fertilizer consumption to improve in some regions in 2023 as prices decline. The affordability index is trending lower and is expected to keep falling over the next three months, although it will stay above normal.
Nitrogen products are the main risk because of the European natural gas crisis.
Easing fertilizer prices and affordability could support demand in 2023, but nitrogen costs remain exposed to European gas prices.
After 42 past bearish report events, Urea moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.9% to +3.3%), and +2.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.