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China commits to large purchases of US agricultural goods over two years.
WikipediaAfter 1,802 past trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 1,982 past trade events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 243 past trade events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.5% to +2.2%), and +1.5% over 20.
After 977 past trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The Phase One deal, signed two days before the move, committed China to large US agricultural purchases, which plausibly lifted export-demand expectations and market sentiment for US corn, though the timing lag and corn's small share of likely Chinese purchases limit how much of the move it explains.
