
The Peterson Institute says China's purchases of US farm goods under the Phase One agreement reached 89 percent of the annual commitment through July, with $23.2 billion imported against a year-to-date target of $25.9 billion. The agreement expires on February 15, 2022, and whether China can meet the remaining commitment is uncertain.
If China must accelerate purchases to meet the deal, US corn and soybean export demand could firm, which supports prices. Failure to meet the target would weigh on sentiment.
After 729 past bullish trade events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.