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President Trump announced a substantial phase one trade deal with China that cancels a planned October 15 tariff increase on $250 billion of Chinese imports. Under the deal, China would purchase $40 to $50 billion of U.S. agricultural products, with text expected within weeks.
A committed $40-50 billion farm purchase program is a major bullish driver for U.S. soybeans, corn, and meal, though implementation risk remains.
nbcnews.comAdam EdelmanOct 11, 2019After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 729 past bullish trade events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 431 past bullish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.1%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 78 past bullish trade events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.2%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Trump's phase one deal announced Oct 11 cancelled the Oct 15 tariff hike and promised $40-50B of Chinese ag purchases, which drove a demand and export rally in lean hogs on the next trading session (Oct 14).
