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CME lean hog futures rose on Friday after the US and China announced a phase one trade agreement, with hopes it would lift Chinese purchases of US pork. The February contract settled up 0.85 cent at 69.50 cents per pound, about 2 cents below its session high, as traders struggled with the deal's details.
Commodity funds held a net short position in lean hogs.
Expected Chinese pork demand supports hog prices, but uncertain details and plentiful US hog and pork supplies limit the upside.
reuters.comJulie IngwersenDec 13, 2019After 85 past bullish trade events, Lean Hogs moved a median +0.8% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.8% to +4.5%), and +4.0% over 20.
After 78 past bullish trade events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.2%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The US-China phase one deal announced Dec 13 raised hopes for Chinese pork purchases, triggering the demand and trade-flow repricing in hogs that carried into the Dec 16 session.
