Chinese crushers plan to buy about 8 million tonnes of soybeans per month from October through December, mostly from the US, as Brazilian old-crop supplies run out. Traders say China is well short of Phase 1 purchase targets.
Crush margins in Shandong are strong, supporting commercial demand.
Large expected Chinese buying in the fourth quarter supports US soybean export demand and prices, and strong crush margins point to robust meal output and demand.
After 696 past bullish trade events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 224 past neutral trade events, SBM moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.2%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.