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A PIIE tracker follows China's monthly purchases of U.S. goods covered by the Phase One agreement, which took effect February 14, 2020. The analysis finds China bought only 58 percent of the total U.S. goods and services exports it committed to over 2020-21.
It bought none of the additional $200 billion.
Persistent shortfalls against Phase One commitments reduce expected structural demand for U.S. farm exports, which limits upside for U.S. soybeans and other crops.
piie.comMay 18, 2020After 1,802 past trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 1,982 past trade events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 977 past trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
