China has begun accepting tariff exemption applications from Chinese importers under the phase one deal, starting Monday. Eligible US products include soybeans, pork, corn, wheat, sorghum, soyoil and beef.
China also approved fresh potatoes from the Pacific Northwest and lifted restrictions on pet food.
Exemptions could lower the landed cost of US feed grains and meats for Chinese buyers, supporting US export demand. Analysts expect actual purchases to start only in late March, with delivery in June or July.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 729 past bullish trade events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 431 past bullish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.1%), and +0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.