
US soybean exporters face new threats, including President Trump's latest trade threats toward China, COVID-19 impacts on Mexican meatpackers, and port congestion in Vietnam. US Soybean Export Council says demand has remained good, and China is expected to buy heavily under the Phase One deal.
Phase One purchases by China support US soybean export demand, but trade tension and port congestion could disrupt flows and cap prices.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 224 past neutral trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.2%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.